21M More EVs expected worldwide by 2030
2018 a record year for electric vehicles (EVs) as two million units sold globally;
Ownership cost of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to match petrol and diesel in the UK by 2021 and globally by 2022; but
A global oversupply of 14 million vehicles is expected as manufacturers’ investment in capacity outpaces demand by 2030.
An additional 21 million EVs will be on the road globally over the next decade, according to new analysis from Deloitte.
Deloitte’s research shows the pace of global EV adoption, rising from two million units in 2018, to four million in 2020, 12 million in 2025, before rising to 21 million in 2030. By 2030, BEVs will significantly outperform the rest of the EV market, accounting for 70% of total EV sales.
Deloitte’s analysis points to two factors in accelerating BEV uptake: growing consumer demand for greener vehicles, coupled with government policies that offer financial incentives while placing inner-city restrictions for gasoline and diesel vehicles.
While upfront purchasing costs of EVs remain the biggest barrier for consumers, the research reveals how, as technology improves, this and other consumer concerns will gradually ease over time. Deloitte predicts that by 2024, the cost to own a BEV will be on par with that of a petrol or diesel vehicle, which could boost demand further.
Michael Woodward, UK automotive partner at Deloitte, said:
“In 2018, we saw global EV sales surpass two million units for the first time; twice those sold in 2017. In the UK, the cost of petrol and diesel vehicle ownership will converge with electric over the next five years. Supported by existing government subsidies and technology advances, this tipping point could be reached as early as 2021. From this point, cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase, and owning an EV will become a realistic, viable option for new buyers.”
Consumer demand tails behind supply of EVs
Growing demand for greener vehicles has seen the majority of automakers announce their ambitions in the EV market and the emergence of a number of new entrants to the automotive market. However, Deloitte’s research suggest that the number of manufacturers is unsustainable.
“Whilst there is a distinct trend developing in the EV market, the story is not a clear cut one. As manufacturers increase their capacity, our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade. This gearing up of EV production is driving a wide ‘expectation gap’ and manufacturers, both incumbent and new entrants alike, will need to adapt towards this new competitive landscape.
“Those that can successfully build trust in their brand, ensure a positive customer experience from initial sale through to aftercare, and reflect consumer shifts towards the sharing economy in future business models will successfully navigate this. Equally, continual investment in engineering talent and the formation of partnerships with bespoke battery producers and third-party mechanic networks will also be important.”